This is great stuff.
I've had some time to think more about this, and especially after some of this terrific input, if we are looking at a time when the IP separates from the labor of typing....and, perhaps we're already there.
There is no doubt that AI can produce the book faster than a human, but without good input the GIGO rule applies. To that end, let me try to apply a couple of arbitrary rules to the conversation.
First: Input or prompt: With this prompt, "Write a 50,000 word novella about a detective in the Canadian woods". There is no doubt that any one of the AI bots could do it....in seconds...but it would be, as noted, drek. But, with a perfect prompt....perhaps a 10-page document of world building, dialog and narrative sample, locale description, character description, etc, etc.....the perfect prompt, in other words, that the AI bot would not only be able to produce the requested novel, but a pretty darned good one, that might require limited editing.
So, the first question is, "Does the author of the future become a prompt engineer, who spends maybe days creating the perfect prompt (The Unique IP, my definition) while allowing AI to do what AI does best, the labor of producing the document?" this seems to beg the question of where is the author's value. The IP or the labor of typing?
Then, I can't help but go to the question of whether there is value in the IP that the author could monetize, instead of the labor of typing and editing, which feels more like sunk cost than value. In other words, is there a market for the IP alone....because the value of the labor has been reduced to nearly zero by AI?
I'm on a roll here, so let me throw this out there. What are the values of the following prompts?
1. A single sentence prompt. "Write a 50,000 word novella about a detective in the Canadian woods"
2. A 5-page prompt with some world building, dialog, locale, etc, about a detective in the Canadian woods.
3. A 20-page prompt (more expansive than #2) about a space alien assuming the persona of a detective in the Canadian woods and using Arhenium-ion powered, mind-reading light sabers to solve a series of gruesome murders in the Canadian woods.
4. An 80 to 100-page prompt that covers a 750 year history of a intergenerational family of detectives who start with nothing more than Spruce rods to brutally extract crime solutions, but end as a trilogy of stories about the development of a hand-worn electronic glove that can extract a confession from a suspect, without the suspect even knowing the glove has been applied, and thereby ending all murders in the Canadian woods.
...and, the same question as above. Is there a point where a publisher might be willing to purchase the IP, not the finished manuscript? And, by the same token, can you see the writing industry morphing into an IP Prompt Engineering effort?
Mind you, I'm not talking about the author who writes for the love of writing. I'm talking about the writer who has no desire to go either the traditional or self-publishing route....the writer who started strong, but has lost interest or available time to finish....the writer who has no intention of writing the story at all, but has very good, even excellent story core ideas. Is there a way for that writer to still make money in an AI-driven world? If you could write that 20-page prompt in a week, would you be willing to sell all the rights to the completion of the story? Even if the story changed through AI? Even if the story never saw the light of day? If so, at what price?
If I could be paid $5 or $10 for the single sentence prompt, I'd churn out 20 - 30 per day. I could write a 20-page prompt in a week. Maybe I'd do those for $750. That 50-page prompt, done really well and expansively might take me the better part of a month, but $5000 would certainly entice me. That JK Rowling-level 100 page prompt, with all of it's unique genre-bending world development is going to take me a minimum of six months...maybe 12 months. $30,000 t0 $50,000 better be on the table.
Is that our future? Is the IP valuable at any point short of a full manuscript?